Most opinion polls point to the ANC falling short of a majority nationally, garnering well below 40% in both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, and close to 50% in Free State and Northern Cape.
There is unlikely to be much change in the Western Cape, where the Democratic Alliance (DA) seems set to retain its majority, and could call on allies to make up a few seats if the challenge from smaller parties does damage. This will require at least three coalition governments — nationally, in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), now tracking at about 5% nationally and 18% in KwaZulu-Natal, may have just enough votes in those two elections to be the ANC’s first port of call for a coalition partner.
But an ANC-IFP majority could be paper-thin and impractical if members of legislatures are ever absent during voting. And it would not be sufficient to govern Gauteng.
That makes the views of the IFP and its leader, Velenkosini Hlabisa, pivotal in the days after the results are announced and a new government must be formed. Parliament has only 14 days to meet and choose a President.
In Gauteng, the provincial ANC leadership would like the EFF as a partner, but the EFF and ANC have lost ground since Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party launched. Even combined, they don’t have enough votes.
Recent ANC statements indicate the party is acutely aware of the risks to the economy and wants stability for the new government. This week, Deputy Finance Minister David Masondo said President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform agenda was at risk should the country be presided over by an “unstable coalition”.
Multi-Party Charter (MPC) members say their only goal is to have more than 50% without the ANC. However, after the election they will face a tough dilemma: if they stay out, they condemn South Africa to an EFF coalition, which DA leader John Steenhuisen has dubbed the Doomsday option.
The MPC will be important if the IFP sticks by it.
The MPC has been meeting twice a month for more than a year, firming up binding agreements, an arbitration mechanism and other tools to resolve differences if they are in government together. Their goal is to achieve 51% collectively.
Thoughtful and serious
IFP leader Hlabisa, a former teacher and school headmaster, comes across as thoughtful and serious. He and Steenhuisen have developed strong bonds, and Hlabisa is firmly committed to the MPC. He compares the MPC to the government of national unity in which his predecessor, Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi, served from 1994 to 2004, and which he considers South Africa’s most successful period in the past 30 years.
Including senior MPC partner the DA in coalitions would bring a secure majority in all three legislatures. None of the opposition parties is willing to concede the possibility now, but there is a strong possibility the next government will consist of more than one party from the MPC if the ANC has anything less than about 46% of the vote on election day and needs a substantial partner.
In all realistically possible scenarios, the ANC will have to choose between parties on its left or those on its right for at least some of its governmental majorities. ANC leaders are divided, with its national leadership favouring one or other of the MPC parties, while the Gauteng ANC prefers the EFF.
But the Gauteng ANC’s political desires to partner with the EFF don’t match the numbers. The entrance of the MK party has decisively hurt the EFF, as well as denting the ANC’s support.
As a result, an ANC-EFF partnership in Gauteng would only get to the low 40s at best — not nearly enough to govern.
Nationally, the latest Social Research Foundation’s (SRF’s) daily tracking poll gives the ANC 45% and the IFP 6%, enough to form a government with a narrow margin for MPs’ absence when key votes are taken. Ipsos’ last poll gave the ANC 40.2% and the IFP 4.4%, but the ANC’s support has probably been increasing since that poll was taken.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP is likely to be better placed and an ANC-IFP coalition might just get over 50%, but the margins could be uncomfortably tight.
This makes the attitude of the IFP suddenly a crucial factor in assembling the next provincial and possibly national governments, and Hlabisa’s views will be key.
Opposition leaders hope to oust the ANC altogether, and joining a government with the ANC is not the way Hlabisa would like the chips to fall. All are campaigning to win.
“Victory is within reach for the MPC because elections are won on the basis of differential turnout,” said MP Dr Leon Schreiber, one of three DA representatives on the MPC. “Enthusiasm to turn out continues to grow among our voters, who sense that the ANC is about to lose, while ANC turnout is depressed after decades of misrule and corruption.”
A hard decision
But the outcome will force a reckoning when opposition parties are forced to decide: Can we let the EFF go in and watch the damage it causes when we could have prevented it?
“We shouldn’t rebuild the country with the people who destroyed it,” Hlabisa said recently. However, he conceded, “There are times when hard decisions have to be taken in the interests of the country.”
Hlabisa would clearly prefer to stay with the MPC when the time for the “hard decision” comes and he said that “a grand coalition could put in enough checks and balances”.
He is firm that South Africa could not afford a coalition disaster at national level like the one in Johannesburg. He wants a new government to begin by auditing staff and asking deployed cadres without the right qualifications to resign. His priorities are fighting crime and ending load shedding. He wants to cut the size of the Cabinet and insists that the IFP will not trade better positions in KZN for cooperation at the national level.
The Ipsos poll gives the IFP 4.4% nationally, and the latest SRF tracking poll gives it 4%. So, it’s possible that an ANC with around 47% could offer to take the IFP in to govern, but it would be a precarious coalition.
Opposition parties are likely to vote for their own leaders for President on the first vote. They have pledged not to back the ANC candidate. But if no candidate has 50%, they will have to go back to their parties — and the MPC.
If all non-ANC members vote for the same candidate, ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa would be defeated. But that is not likely, given the gulf of differences between the MPC parties and the EFF and MK parties.
Ramaphosa’s problems are likely to come later, when his deputy, Paul Mashatile, gets itchy for his turn. But the ANC will have lost substantial control of all three economic powerhouses — Western Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
The post-election period will also be sobering for many party leaders who have assured us they will be President next month. The MK party has probably knocked back the EFF, the ANC and even the IFP a little.
Other smaller parties will hold only a handful of seats and will have to find a constructive role in Parliament.
Among those who won’t be President are Jacob Zuma, Julius Malema, Herman Mashaba, Mmusi Maimane and Hlaudi Motsoeneng, the former COO of the SABC, who said last month he would be President. DM
